竞争性故障模型可靠性评估的非参数估计方法

沈安慰; 郭基联; 王卓健

doi:10.13224/j.cnki.jasp.2016.01.007

竞争性故障模型可靠性评估的非参数估计方法

doi: 10.13224/j.cnki.jasp.2016.01.007

空军工程大学航空航天工程学院, 西安 710038

基金项目:

陕西省软科学技术基金(2014KRM35)

国家自然科学基金(61374145,U1333131,71501185)

详细信息

作者简介:
沈安慰(1988-),男,浙江衢州人,博士生,主要研究方向为RMS论证与评估.E-mail:zjsaw@foxmail.com

中图分类号: V37
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- 文章访问数: 955
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2014-05-14
- 刊出日期: 2016-01-28

Nonparametric estimation method of reliability evaluation in competitive fault model

Aeronautics and Astronautics Engineering College, Air Force Engineering University, Xi'an 710038, China

摘要

摘要: 针对航空发动机现场数据的可靠性评估面临着小子样与随机删失问题,对可靠性评估中的非参数估计方法进行了对比分析.应用蒙特卡罗方法,在竞争性故障模型下,设计了一种对比可靠性评估方法优劣性的仿真方法.该方法以三重威布尔分布为例,通过模拟产生具有随机删失特点的航空发动机现场故障数据,分别对比4种可靠性评估非参数估计方法的优劣性.最后通过一个工程应用案例验证了模型的有效性.仿真结果表明:在三重威布尔竞争性故障模型下,非参数估计方法的优劣顺序依次是Kaplan-Meier估计、平均秩次法、Herd-Johnson估计、Nelson-Aalen估计.
- 竞争性故障模型 /
- 可靠性 /
- 非参数估计 /
- 蒙特卡罗 /
- 平均秩次法
Abstract: The nonparametric estimation method of reliability evaluation was compared and analyzed for the problem of small sample and randomly censoring in the field data of aero-engine. Monte Carlo method was applied and a simulation method was designed to compare the reliability evaluation method within competitive fault model. Through the example of trebling Weilbull distribution, random censoring observations of aero-engine were simulated through this method by comparing four nonparametric estimation methods of reliability evaluation. An example of engineering application was used to illustrate the validity of the method. Results show that the excellence order of nonparametric estimation method is Kaplan-Meier estimation, mean rank order method, Herd-Johnson estimation and Nelson-Aalen estimation under the trebling Weilbull competitive fault model.
- competitive fault model /
- reliability /
- nonparametric estimation /
- Monte Carlo /
- mean rank order method

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参考文献(19)

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