The qualification test risk of binomial equipment was investigated by Bayes theory to assess the performance index and establish qualification test scheme. The Beta distribution was chosen as prior distribution. The expressions of average risk and posterior risk were given. The research ideas and applications of two kinds of risk were explained. On this basis, the max posterior risk model was developed through investigating the result of qualification test. The max. posterior risk’s properties were given. Compared with posterior risk and classical risk, it demonstrated the conservation and feasibility of max. posterior risk. So the consumer benefit was protected. The test statistics scheme based on max. posterior risk conformed to the engineering rule. The test number decreased by 18%-63%, compared with test statistics scheme based on classical risk. It also analyzed the number relation between three kinds of risk and prior information, interval estimation. The properties of max. posterior risk were demonstrated, showing its wide application.
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李大伟,王国栋,李永哲.基于Bayes理论的成败型装备鉴定试验风险分析[J].航空动力学报,2021,36(1):157~166. LI Dawei, WANG Guodong, LI Yongzhe. Qualification test risk analysis of binomial equipmentbased on Bayes theory[J]. Journal Of Aerospace Power,2021,36(1):157-166.