Modeling for prior distributions reliability based on P value in Bayes inference of hit accuracy analysis

Based on the analysis of the concept and necessity of prior reliability for dispersion parameters prior distribution, the P value calculating model for given dispersion parameter (variance) was presented, the prior distributions reliability calculating model for onedimensional dispersion parameter was constructed, and the concepts of prior P value and prior reliability were presented. The variation of prior reliability was described, and the reject rule of prior distribution was given. To the analysis of prior reliability for twodimensional dispersion parameter, the independent solution model and integrated solution model for prior P value were carried out respectively. And with the interval divided by 005, 02 and 04, the principle and requirement of prior distribution selection was presented. From cases comparison result, it was easy to see that prior reliability can be easy to complete the difference comparison of prior distributions, and compared with traditional method only could describe prior reliability from qualitative view, the P value model not only calculated the numeric of prior reliability, but also could complete the correctness hypothesis test of prior distribution form probability view.