Volume 34 Issue 3
Mar.  2019
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Monte Carlo-based competitive failure delivery simulation model of engine[J]. Journal of Aerospace Power, 2019, 34(3): 616-626. doi: 10.13224/j.cnki.jasp.2019.03.013
Citation: Monte Carlo-based competitive failure delivery simulation model of engine[J]. Journal of Aerospace Power, 2019, 34(3): 616-626. doi: 10.13224/j.cnki.jasp.2019.03.013

Monte Carlo-based competitive failure delivery simulation model of engine

doi: 10.13224/j.cnki.jasp.2019.03.013
  • Received Date: 2018-05-29
  • Publish Date: 2019-03-28
  • To solve the problem of the complicated modeling process and the slving difficulty when using conventional analytical methods to predict the engine delivery time,a method based on Monte Carlo simulation to predict the first delivery time of the engine was proposed. By analyzing the historical data of the engine fleet, the exhaust gas temperature margin (EGTM) decline rule and the lifetime distribution of performance degradation excess were studied. The time distribution of the first hardware damage occurred of each major hardware was counted, the probability of occurrence of accidental damage was calculated, and the time distribution of accidental damage was determined. Performance degradation, hardware damage and accidental damage were subjected to competitive analysis, and a Monte Carlo simulation model was established to predict the law of time when the engine is first delivered. Combined with the actual data provided by the engine fleet, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used to determine the distribution type of first delivery time. After analysis, the reliability error of the simulation results was very small, between -1% and 2%, and the rationality and feasibility of the method was verified.

     

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