| Citation: | Li Jia, Yu Shilong, Zhang Wei, et al. Adaptive Kriging reliability analysis method based on extended expectation improvement strategy[J]. Journal of Aerospace Power, 2026, 42（X）：20250275 doi: 10.13224/j.cnki.jasp.20250275
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To enhance computational efficiency and accuracy in reliability analysis for implicit and highly nonlinear structures, this study develops an improved adaptive Kriging-based reliability analysis method. in the infill strategy of the Kriging model, a sign function and a distance-based weight function were incorporated to construct an Extended Expected Improvement learning function, ensuring that sample updates are concentrated near the limit state surface. An adaptive reliability analysis framework was established by integrating Monte Carlo simulation, which improved computational stability and reduced the number of additional samples required. Validation through classical mathematical examples and engineering problems demonstrated that, compared with Monte Carlo simulation, the relative error in failure probability was within 0.5%, and the number of new samples was significantly reduced compared to existing reliability analysis methods. Finally, a finite element case study on cavitation reliability in an aviation fuel centrifugal pump showed that the error in failure probability was only 1.06% relative to Monte Carlo simulation, while the computational cost was reduced by 51.06% compared to existing reliability analysis approaches. These results verify that the proposed method achieves both high precision and high efficiency in reliability analysis of implicit nonlinear structures.
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