Bayesian model for missile storage reliability analysisbased on success failure test

In view of the disadvantages of the classical analysis method for missile storage reliability analysis,a Bayesian model was proposed in this paper.The Dirichlet distribution was taken as prior distribution in the model.The historical information and expert information were synthetically used.Combined with the missile success-failure test data for every stage,the joint posterior distribution of reliability was generated.Then,the Gibbs sampling algorithm was used to compute the posterior inference.The Bayesian estimators and Bayesian lower bound were gained for the reliability of every stage.Furthermore,based on the test data,the model can be used to predict the missile storage reliability.The example shows that the parameters of the Bayesian model have apparent meaning and are convenient to use for engineering applications.