动量轮维纳过程退化建模与寿命预测

厉海涛; 金光; 周经伦; 周忠宝; 吴春华

动量轮维纳过程退化建模与寿命预测

1.
国防科学技术大学信息系统与管理学院,长沙 410073
2.
湖南大学工商管理学院,长沙 410082
3.
中国人民解放军空军第五飞行学院航空理论教研室,武威 733003

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(70901024,71071158); 湖南省优秀研究生创新基金; 国防科技大学校优秀研究生创新基金(B090501)

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2010-02-26
- 修回日期: 2010-07-23
- 刊出日期: 2011-03-28

Momentum wheel Wiener process degradation modeling and life prediction

1.
College of Information Systems and Management, National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410073,China
2.
College of Business Administration,Hunan University,Changsha 410082,China
3.
Aviation Theory Teaching and Research Section, The 5th Air Force Flight Academy of the Chinese People's Liberation Army, Wuwei 733003,China

摘要

摘要: 针对动量轮寿命预测无失效数据问题,利用有漂移的维纳过程对其轴承温度建立性能退化模型,同时,考虑由于加工工艺、制造误差等因素所造成的不确定性,利用随机变量来描述其漂移参数和扩散参数,并结合自助法获取纠偏估计.根据所建模型仿真了轴承温度维纳过程的样本路径,最后,对动量轮进行随机失效阈值情形的寿命预测和剩余寿命预测.该模型为动量轮退化建模与寿命预测提供了一种方法,理论与方法可推广用于类似的高可靠、长寿命产品的退化建模和寿命预测.
- 寿命预测 /
- 退化建模 /
- 维纳过程 /
- 动量轮 /
- 轴承温度
Abstract: For the problem that there is no failure data to use in momentum wheel's life prediction, a model of the degradation of momentum wheel' bear temperature was established using Wiener process with drift.At the same time,considering of the uncertainty which was made by the process technics and manufacturing error, the drift and the diffusion parameters were described as stochastic variables,and the bias correction estimate was obtained using bootstrap method.And then, the sample path was simulated based on the established model.At last, the life prediction and residual life prediction were performed at the uncertain failure threshold.The model provides a method for the degradation modeling and life prediction of momentum wheel,and the theory and method can be generalized for the degradation modeling and life prediction of some similar high reliability and long life products.
- life prediction /
- degradation modeling /
- Wiener process /

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参考文献(12)

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