基于Wiener过程的民用航空发动机性能可靠性预测

朱磊; 左洪福; 蔡景

基于Wiener过程的民用航空发动机性能可靠性预测

南京航空航天大学民航/飞行学院, 南京 210016

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金委员会与中国民用航空总局联合项目(60939003); 国家自然科学基金(61079013); 江苏省自然科学基金(BK2011737)

计量
- 文章访问数: 2137
- HTML浏览量: 304
- PDF量: 1095
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2012-05-31
- 刊出日期: 2013-05-28

Performance reliability prediction for civil aviation aircraft engine based on Wiener process

College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, China

摘要

摘要: 通过对民用航空发动机性能退化数据的分析,提出了一种有效融合先验退化数据和现场退化数据的性能可靠性评估和剩余寿命预测方法.首先在先验退化数据的基础上确定Wiener过程参数的先验分布,然后利用贝叶斯方法融合新增的现场数据,对Wiener过程参数进行更新,并在此基础上对单台发动机进行性能可靠性评估和剩余寿命预测.该方法能根据现场退化数据不断地对可靠性和剩余寿命进行更新.最后通过某航空公司发动机性能退化数据验证文中提出的方法,结果表明41号发动机在2000循环和3000循环时预测的剩余寿命相对误差分别为0.060和0.018,可以满足航空公司发动机下发计划制定的实际需要.
- 可靠性 /
- Wiener过程 /
- 贝叶斯理论 /
- 民用航空发动机 /
- 性能退化
Abstract: With respect to degradation data of civil aviation aircraft engine, a method which combined prior degradation information with current degradation data was proposed to assess performance reliability and residual life. Firstly, on the basis of prior degradation information, prior distributions of Wiener process parameters were confirmed. Secondly, by using Bayesian method, prior distributions could be updated to posterior distributions, and then the reliability and residual life of an engine were evaluated based on the posterior distributions. The proposed method can update the evaluation results of reliability and residual life whenever new degradation data is available. Finally, a practical example of degradation data of civil aviation aircraft engine was used to testify the validity of the proposed model. The result shows that the deviation of No.41 engine in 2000 cycles and 3000 cycles is 0.060 and 0.018, which satisfies the management requirement of engine fleet of airlines.
- reliability /
- Wiener process /
- Bayes theory /
- civil aviation aircraft engine /
- performance degradation

HTML

参考文献(17)

[1]	Cox D R,Miller H D.The theory of stochastic processes[M].London:Chapman and Hall,1965.
[2]	Doksum K A,Hoyland A.Models for variable-stress accelerated life testing experiments based on Wiener processes and the inverse Gaussian distribution[J].Technometrics,1992,34(1):74-82.
[3]	Whitmore G A.Estimating degradation by a Wiener diffusion process subject to measurement error[J].Lifetime Data Analysis,1995,1(3):307-319.
[4]	Whitmore G A,Schenkelberg F.Modeling accelerated degradation data using Wiener diffusion with a time scale transformation[J].Lifetime Data Analysis,1997,3(1):27-45.
[5]	Park C,Padgett W J.Accelerated degradation models for failure based on geometric Brownian motion and Gamma processes[J].Lifetime Data Analysis,2005,11(4):511-527.
[6]	Onar A,Padgett W J.Accelerated test models with the inverse Gaussian distribution[J].Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference,2000,89(1/2):119-133.
[7]	赵建印,彭宝华,孙权,等.金属化膜脉冲电容器退化失效分析[J].高电压技术,2006(3):62-64. ZHAO Jianyin,PENG Baohua,SUN Quan,et al.Degradation failure analysis of metallized film pulse capacitors[J].High Voltage Engineering,2006(3):62-64.(in Chinese)
[8]	厉海涛,金光,周经伦,等.动量轮Wiener过程退化建模与寿命预测[J].航空动力学报,2011,26(3):622-627. LI Haitao,JIN Guang,ZHOU Jinglun,et al.Momentum wheel Wiener process degradation modeling and life prediction[J].Journal of Aerospace Power,2011,26(3):622-627.(in Chinese)
[9]	周经伦,厉海涛,刘学敏,等.Wiener过程寿命预测的一种自助法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2011,31(8):1588-1592. ZHOU Jinglun,LI Haitao,LIU Xuemin,et al.A bootstrap method of life prediction based on Wiener process[J].Systems Engineering Theory & Practice,2011,31(8):1588-1592.(in Chinese)
[10]	王小林,郭波,程志君,等.考虑有损伤测量条件下的设备剩余寿命的建模分析[J].国防科技大学学报,2011,33(5):59-63. WANG Xiaolin,GUO Bo,CHENG Zhijun,et al.Modeling and analysis of equipment's residual life considering the condition of damaging measuring[J].Journal of National University of Defense Technology,2011,33(5):59-63.(in Chinese)
[11]	齐建军,刘亚杰,程志君.基于Wiener过程的航天加注泵性能可靠性评估[J].电子产品可靠性与环境试验,2011(1):18-21. QI Jianjun,LIU Yajie,CHENG Zhijun.Reliability analysis of charging pump for spaceflight based on Wiener process[J].Electronic Product Reliability and Environmental Testing,2011(1):18-21.(in Chinese)
[12]	任淑红,左洪福,白芳.基于带漂移的布朗运动的民用航空发动机实时性能可靠性预测[J].航空动力学报,2009,24(12):2796-2801. REN Shuhong,ZUO Hongfu,BAI Fang.Real-time performance reliability prediction for civil aviation engines based on Brownian motion with drift[J].Journal of Aerospace Power,2009,24(12):2796-2801.(in Chinese)
[13]	任淑红.民航发动机性能可靠性评估与在翼寿命预测方法研究[D].南京:南京航空航天大学,2010. REN Shuhong.Research on methods of performance reliability assessments and life on wing prediction for civil aeroengine[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,2010.(in Chinese)
[14]	Congdon P.Bayesian statistical modeling[M].Haboken,US:Wiley,2001.
[15]	Ahmad K E,Jaheen Z F.Approximate Bayes estimators applied to the inverse gaussian lifetime model[J].Computers Math Applic,1995,29(12):39-47.
[16]	Chikkara R S,Folks J L.The inverse Gaussian distribution:theory,methodology and applications[M].New York:Marcell Dekker,1989.
[17]	Seshadri V.The inverse Gaussian distribution[M].Oxford:Oxford University Press,1993.