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基于贝叶斯模型平均的航空发动机可靠性分析

王华伟 高军 吴海桥

王华伟, 高军, 吴海桥. 基于贝叶斯模型平均的航空发动机可靠性分析[J]. 航空动力学报, 2014, 29(2): 305-313. doi: 10.13224/j.cnki.jasp.2014.02.009
引用本文: 王华伟, 高军, 吴海桥. 基于贝叶斯模型平均的航空发动机可靠性分析[J]. 航空动力学报, 2014, 29(2): 305-313. doi: 10.13224/j.cnki.jasp.2014.02.009
WANG Hua-wei, GAO Jun, WU Hai-qiao. Reliability analysis on aero-engine using Bayesian model averaging[J]. Journal of Aerospace Power, 2014, 29(2): 305-313. doi: 10.13224/j.cnki.jasp.2014.02.009
Citation: WANG Hua-wei, GAO Jun, WU Hai-qiao. Reliability analysis on aero-engine using Bayesian model averaging[J]. Journal of Aerospace Power, 2014, 29(2): 305-313. doi: 10.13224/j.cnki.jasp.2014.02.009

基于贝叶斯模型平均的航空发动机可靠性分析

doi: 10.13224/j.cnki.jasp.2014.02.009
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金与中国民航局联合资助项目(U1233115,60879001);江苏省青蓝工程优秀青年骨干教师资助项目

Reliability analysis on aero-engine using Bayesian model averaging

  • 摘要: 针对不同失效模式的特点,利用航空发动机状态监测信息,分别采用Gamma过程、Wiener过程和Weibull分布建立可靠性分析模型.采用贝叶斯模型平均(BMA)方法,分析不同失效模式对可靠性影响,对航空发动机可靠性进行集成分析.通过算例跟踪某在翼航空发动机可靠性水平,基于贝叶斯模型平均的航空发动机可靠性模型的计算误差率低于单一可靠性分析模型,计算结果误差率低于1%.说明多模型集成可靠性技术在复杂系统运行可靠性分析中的有效性和准确性.

     

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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2013-07-06
  • 刊出日期:  2014-02-28

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