基于贝叶斯网络的分层系统可靠性分析

刘钰; 韩峰; 闫凯; 陆希成

doi:10.13224/j.cnki.jasp.2016.06.014

基于贝叶斯网络的分层系统可靠性分析

doi: 10.13224/j.cnki.jasp.2016.06.014

刘钰¹,
韩峰¹,
闫凯¹,
陆希成^1,2

1. 西北核技术研究所第五研究室, 西安 710024;
2. 西北核技术研究所高功率微波技术重点实验室, 西安 710024

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金重点基金(61231003)

国家自然科学基金青年基金(61201090)

详细信息

作者简介:
刘钰(1982-),男,陕西西安人,助理研究员,博士生,主要从事系统辐射效应评估方法研究.

中图分类号: V23;TB114.3;N945.17
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- 文章访问数: 891
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2015-10-14
- 刊出日期: 2016-06-28

Reliability analysis of hierarchical systems based on Bayesian network

1. Department of No .5, Northwest Institute of Nuclear Technology, Xi'an 710024, China;
2. Science and Technology on High Power Microwave Laboratory, Northwest Institute of Nuclear Technology, Xi'an 710024, China

摘要

摘要: 由于分层系统的系统结构复杂,且系统不同层次可靠性信息具有不均衡性的特点,使得分层系统的可靠性建模较为困难.考虑二态情况,通过引入贝叶斯网络描述分层系统元素间的失效关系,并考虑了系统元素间级联失效问题,结合贝叶斯多源信息融合方法,以贝叶斯网络模型为基础整合了系统各层元素的可靠性信息,构成了一种较为通用的二态分层系统可靠性分析方法.算例结果表明:该方法在贝叶斯网络模型计算过程中能够融合系统各层元素可靠性信息并有效处理级联失效问题,提高了系统可靠性后验均值估计的准确性,减小了系统可靠性结论的后验方差.
- 可靠性 /
- 分层系统 /
- 贝叶斯网络 /
- 贝叶斯方法 /
- 级联失效
Abstract: Reliability modeling of hierarchical systems is significantly difficult because of the complex system structures and imbalanced reliability information at different system levels. A Bayesian network reliability analysis methodology was proposed to model the reliability of binary-state hierarchical systems considering the combination of Bayesian network and Bayesian information aggregation approach to represent the failure relationship among system elements. An example illustrated that, the proposed methodology can significantly improve the accuracy of system-level reliability modeling and reduce the variances of the posterior failure distribution of system by considering the cascading failure dependency and utilizing all available reliability information throughout the system.
- reliability /
- hierarchical systems /
- Bayesian network /
- Bayesian method /
- cascading failure

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参考文献(21)

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