Safety assessment method for aero-engine systems based on surge/stall
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摘要:
现行喘振/失速条款适航审定方法基于单降稳因素叠加的最小发动机状态分析方法，导致高估最小发动机状态的发生概率，无法针对喘振/失速事件做出准确风险概率评估。通过将系统安全概念引入航空发动机喘振/失速适航审定领域，使用蒙特卡洛方法调用发动机气动热力模型构建系统安全评估方法。以某型航空发动机为案例进行基于系统安全评估方法的全局敏感性分析以及风险评估，结果表明：对于喘振裕度影响最大的降稳因素为引气值、循环数以及进口总温，同时全局敏感性分析结果显示降稳因素之间存在耦合影响，系统安全评估结果表明发动机急加速占总飞行时间不超过1.25%时，喘振/失速发生概率是可接受的。
Abstract:The current airworthiness certification method for surge/stall clauses based on the minimum engine state analysis method stacks single destabilizing factors and overestimates the probability of minimum engine state occurrence. It cannot provide accurate risk probability assessment for surge/stall events. To address this issue, the concept of system safety was introduced into the field of aero-engine surge/stall clause airworthiness certification, and a system safety assessment method based on global sensitivity analysis of aero-engine was constructed using a Monte Carlo method to call the engine aerodynamic-thermal model. The safety assessment process was demonstrated using a specific aero-engine model, which identified the pilot gas value, cycle number, and total inlet temperature as the most influential destabilizing factors on the surge margin, and the distortion range and intensity of the circumferential total pressure distortion as secondary factors. The global sensitivity analysis revealed a coupling effect between the distortion range and intensity, which increased the degree of their respective influences on the surge margin. The results of the system safety assessment indicated that the probability of a surge/stall event is acceptable when the engine sharply accelerates for no more than 1.25% of the total flight hours.
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图 1 SSA流程中的喘振/失速系统安全评估方法
Figure 1. System safety assessment method of the SSA process for surge/stall
图 4 平行压气机与NASA Rotor 67数值结果验证
Figure 4. Verification of the numerical results of the parallel compressor with NASA Rotor 67
图 5 发动机老化导致效率损失值与无量纲循环数的关系
Figure 5. Value of efficiency change due to engine deterioration versus total dimensionless cycle number
图 7 气动热力模型计算数据试验验证结果
Figure 7. Aerodynamic thermal model calculation data and test verification results
图 9 Sobol敏感性分析方法流程示意图
Figure 9. Schematic diagram of the procedure of Sobol sensitivity analysis method
图 10 等折合转速喘振裕度的一阶、全阶Sobol敏感性指数收敛趋势
Figure 10. Convergence trend of first-order and total-order Sobol sensitivity indices with equal discounted speed surge margin
图 11 等折合转速喘振裕度的一阶、全阶Sobol敏感性指数柱状图
Figure 11. Histogram of first-order and total-order Sobol sensitivity indices with equal discounted speed surge margins
图 12 等折合转速喘振裕度的二阶Sobol敏感性指数柱状图
Figure 12. Histogram of the second-order Sobol sensitivity index with equal discounted speed surge margin
图 13 不同样本量N算例喘振裕度输出结果示意图
Figure 13. Schematic diagram of the output of surge margin for different sample size N cases
表 1 不确定性降稳因素类型及其分布
Table 1. Types of uncertainty stability reduction factors and their distribution
降稳因素 概率分布类型 数值 进气温度$ {T}_{\mathrm{i}\mathrm{n}} $ 均匀分布 273，313 进气压力$ {p}_{\mathrm{i}\mathrm{n}} $ 均匀分布 95，125 畸变范围$ {D}_{\mathrm{a}\mathrm{p}} $ 正态分布 0.3，0.1 畸变度$ {D}_{\mathrm{p}\mathrm{p}} $ 正态分布 0.08，0.02 引气值$ {W}_{\mathrm{b}\mathrm{l}\mathrm{d}} $ 均匀分布 2，5 功率提取值$ {P}_{\mathrm{h}\mathrm{p}\mathrm{x}} $ 均匀分布 40，44 无量纲循环数$ {C}_{\mathrm{t}\mathrm{a}\mathrm{c}} $ 正态分布 0.5，0.2 
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表 2 等折合转速喘振裕度的一阶、全阶Sobol敏感性指数排名
Table 2. Ranking of first-order and total-order Sobol sensitivity indices for equal discounted speed surge margins
降稳因素
名称一阶
指数一阶指数
排名全阶
指数全阶指数
排名$ {T}_{\mathrm{i}\mathrm{n}} $ 0.25173 3 0.25622 3 $ {p}_{\mathrm{i}\mathrm{n}} $ 0.0253 6 0.02538 6 $ {D}_{\mathrm{a}\mathrm{p}} $ 0.08813 4 0.10218 4 $ {D}_{\mathrm{p}\mathrm{p}} $ 0.04098 5 0.05614 5 $ {W}_{\mathrm{b}\mathrm{l}\mathrm{d}} $ 0.31185 1 0.31207 1 $ {P}_{\mathrm{h}\mathrm{p}\mathrm{x}} $ 0.00304 7 0.00328 7 $ {C}_{\mathrm{t}\mathrm{a}\mathrm{c}} $ 0.26197 2 0.26202 2
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表 3 不同样本量N算例喘振裕度输出结果表
Table 3. Output results of wheezing margin for different sample size N cases
样本量 ±2σ ±1%均值 100 0.09083 0.08773 0.08289 0.08599 500 0.08847 0.08763 0.08506 0.0859 1500 0.08766 0.08798 0.08656 0.08623 3000 0.08727 0.08788 0.08674 0.08614
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