基于相似寿命模型和数据的产品可靠性评估

贾祥

doi:10.13224/j.cnki.jasp.20230571

基于相似寿命模型和数据的产品可靠性评估

doi: 10.13224/j.cnki.jasp.20230571

贾祥

国防科技大学系统工程学院，长沙 410073

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金（72271238，71801219）

详细信息

作者简介:
贾祥（1992-），男，副教授、硕士生导师，博士，主要从事系统可靠性分析和试验评估研究。E-mail：jiaxiang09@sina.cn

中图分类号: V219；V419；TB114.3
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2023-09-06
- 网络出版日期: 2024-06-19

Reliability evaluation for product based on similar lifetime model and data from similar products

JIA Xiang

College of Systems Engineering，National University of Defense Technology，Changsha 410073，China

摘要

摘要:
为了利用与待评估产品具有相似性的产品可靠性数据来扩充信息源的问题，提出了基于相似寿命模型的可靠性评估方法。定义相似因子表征各相似产品与新产品的相似程度，构造相似寿命模型描述产品的相似因子与其寿命分布参数的关系，进一步综合相似产品数据确定模型参数，最终可评估得到各个产品的可靠性。以某卫星产品为例进行可靠性分析，展示了所提出方法的应用，结果表明无论是否存在失效数据，以及是否存在新产品数据，该方法都是适用的和稳健的，并消除了现有的数据融合方法需要新产品数据的要求，且运算简单，可扩展性强，易于推广。
- 可靠性评估 /
- 相似产品 /
- 相似因子 /
- 相似寿命 /
- 数据综合
Abstract:
To use the data from the similar products of the new product considering data enrichment, a model based on similar lifetime model was proposed for reliability evaluation. The similar factor was defined to represent the relationship between similar and new products. The similar lifetime model was presented to describe the relationship between similar factor and corresponding lifetime distribution parameters. Next, the data from similar products were used to determine the similar lifetime model, and the reliability could be evaluated further. An example was illustrated for a product in satellite to show the application of methods. The proposed method was demonstrated applicable no matter whether there were data from new product and whether there were failure data, meanwhile it eliminated the demand for collection of new products by existing methods, making it appealing with simple calculation, strong flexibility and wide application.
- reliability evaluation /
- similar product /
- similar factor /
- similar lifetime /
- data incorporation

HTML

图 1 相似产品的寿命试验数据（括号内数字左侧为样品个数n，右侧为失效个数r）

Figure 1. Test results of similar products lifetime（the left is unit number n, the right is failure number r）

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 相似产品和新产品样本数据的失效概率估计结果

Figure 2. Estimation of failure probability for similar and new products

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图 3 各个相似产品寿命分布参数的初始估计（散点为失效概率点估计，直线为拟合所得的分布曲线）

Figure 3. Initial estimates of lifetime distribution parameters for all the different similar products （scatter represents the point estimation of failure probability and line is the fitted distribution curve）

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 拟合所得的相似寿命模型初值（散点为各相似产品寿命分布参数的初始估计，直线为拟合所得的相似寿命模型）

Figure 4. Initial estimates of similar lifetime model parameters （scatter represents the initial parameter estimations of lifetime distribution and line is the fitted similar lifetime model）

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 有失效数据场合新产品的可靠度评估结果

Figure 5. Reliability estimation of new product with failure data

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 6 新产品寿命的估计结果与相似因子变化的关系

Figure 6. Relationship between the lifetime estimation of new product with similar factor

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 各相似产品在各相似要素上的评分值

Table 1. Value on the similar factor for each similar product

相似产品	结构	功能	设计原理	工作原理	材料组成	工作环境
1	v₁₁	v₁₂	v₁₃	v₁₄	v₁₅	v₁₆
…	…	…	…	…	…	…
l	v_l1	v_l2	v_l3	v_l4	v_l5	v_l6

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表 2 仿真试验所得结果

Table 2. Results from the simulation study

编号	参数	$ g （ {{q_i}} ） $	$ {\boldsymbol{\alpha}} $	$ {\boldsymbol{\beta }}$	相对偏差
编号	参数	$ g （ {{q_i}} ） $	$ {\boldsymbol{\alpha}} $	$ {\boldsymbol{\beta }}$	本文方法	现有的Bayes 融合方法
1	$ m $	1/q_i	1.12	−0.02	0.019	0.032
1	$ \eta $	q_i	2.05	0.32	0.007	0.185
2	$ m $	ln q_i	1.14	0.20	0.020	0.328
2	$ \eta $	q_i	2.05	0.32	0.003	0.156
3	$ m $	ln q_i	1.14	0.20	0.020	0.257
	$ \eta $	1/q_i	2.34	−0.03	−0.01	0.214

下载: 导出CSV

表 3 有失效数据场合不同相似寿命模型下的目标函数值

Table 3. Optimization function under different similar lifetime models with failure data

序号	参数I	误差S	序号	参数I	误差S
1	[1,1]	0.6491	9	[3,1]	0.6067
2	[1,2]	0.6428	10	[3,2]	0.6049
3	[1,3]	0.6341	11	[3,3]	0.6008
4	[1,4]	0.6526	12	[3,4]	0.6063
5	[2,1]	0.6292	13	[4,1]	0.6632
6	[2,2]	0.6253	14	[4,2]	0.6546
7	[2,3]	0.6190	15	[4,3]	0.6438
8	[2,4]	0.6306	16	[4,4]	0.6685

下载: 导出CSV

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