考虑失效相关性的旋转机械可靠性模糊分配

窦唯; 刘晓阳; 孙圣迪

doi:10.13224/j.cnki.jasp.20240235

考虑失效相关性的旋转机械可靠性模糊分配

doi: 10.13224/j.cnki.jasp.20240235

窦唯^1,,
刘晓阳^2,*, ,,
孙圣迪³

1.
中国运载火箭技术研究院北京航天动力研究所，北京 100076
2.
上海大学机电工程与自动化学院，上海 200444
3.
河北科技工程职业技术大学机电工程系，河北邢台 054000

基金项目: 基础科研项目（JSZL2019203A003）

详细信息

作者简介:
窦唯（1977-），男，研究员，博士，主要从事液体火箭发动机涡轮泵可靠性研究。E-mail：dwdqpi@126.com

通讯作者:
刘晓阳（1994-），男，博士，主要从事故障诊断、可靠性设计研究。E-mail：liuxy199415@163.com

中图分类号: V219；TB114.3
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-04-18
- 网络出版日期: 2025-01-07

Reliability fuzzy allocation of rotating machinery considering failure correlation

DOU Wei^1
,,
LIU Xiaoyang^{2,*
, ,},
SUN Shengdi³

1.
Beijing Aerospace Propulsion Institute，China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology，Beijing 100076，China
2.
School of Mechatronic Engineering and Automation，Shanghai University，Shanghai 200444，China
3.
Department of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering，Heibei Vocatinal University of Technology and Engineering，Xingtai Hebei 054000，China

摘要

摘要:
针对部件失效独立假设导致旋转机械系统可靠性分配结果不佳的问题，提出一种基于失效相关性和模糊层次分析（FAHP）的可靠性分配策略。基于层次分析模型，根据初始评价对系统部件建立非模糊综合评价矩阵，以降低初始评价的主观性影响。引入载荷分散系数，设计了一种反映部件间失效相关性的失效相关因子，用于修正评价矩阵中复杂度、失效严重度和失效发生度这3类系数，并计算出各部件的可靠性分配权重。将可靠性分配权重输入Gumbel Copula函数以建立系统可靠度分配模型。以某型号液体火箭发动机涡轮泵为例，进行对比分析，结果表明：所提策略因考虑失效相关性而给出了更合理且成本更低的可靠性分配方案，其中失效危害度较高的涡轮和壳体被合理分配了较高的可靠度指标0.99982和0.99992，并且系统的无量纲成本为95.21305，远低于失效独立和失效负相关下的设计结果。
- 液体火箭发动机涡轮泵 /
- 可靠性分配 /
- 失效相关性 /
- 模糊层次分析（FAHP） /
- Copula函数
Abstract:
In the reliability design process of rotating machinery, the assumption of failure independence between different components may lead to unsatisfactory results in reliability allocation. Therefore, a reliability allocation method based on failure correlation and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) was proposed. Based on the analytic hierarchy process model and initial evaluations, a non-fuzzy evaluation matrix was constructed for all system components, aiming to reduce the subjective influence from the initial evaluations. By introducing the load dispersion coefficient, a failure correlation factor reflecting the failure correlation between components was devised to adjust the coefficients of complexity, severity, and occurrence within the evaluation matrix, and the reliability weights of components were calculated. A reliability allocation model was constructed by inputting reliability weights into the Gumbel Copula function. Taking a liquid rocket engine turbopump as an example, a comparative analysis was conducted. Since taking into account failure correlation, the proposed method can provide a more reasonable and lower cost reliability allocation scheme, where the turbine and shell with higher failure hazard were reasonably allocated higher reliability indexes of 0.99982 and 0.99992, and the dimensionless cost of system was 95.21305, much lower than the results under the assumptions of failure independence and negative correlation.
- liquid rocket engine turbopump /
- reliability allocation /
- failure correlation /
- fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) /
- Copula function

HTML

图 1 机械系统层次分析模型

Figure 1. Analytic hierarchy process model for mechanical systems

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图 2 失效相关因子的变化趋势

Figure 2. Change trend of relative failure factors

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图 3 失效严重度系数、失效发生度系数的变化趋势

Figure 3. Change trend of failure severity coefficient and failure occurrence coefficient

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图 4 可靠性分配策略流程图

Figure 4. Flowchart of reliability allocation strategy

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图 5 涡轮泵结构简图

Figure 5. Structural diagram of turbopump

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表 1 评价值与评价集

Table 1. Evaluation value and evaluation set

模糊评价值	因素重要性	复杂度	失效严重度	失效发生度	技术水平	工作环境
$ \tilde 1 $	不重要	简单	不严重	不发生	不成熟	恶劣
$ \tilde 3 $	一般重要	一般复杂	一般严重	会发生	一般成熟	较恶劣
$ \tilde 5 $	较重要	较复杂	较严重	少发生	较成熟	一般
$ \tilde 7 $	重要	复杂	严重	偶尔发生	成熟	良好
$ \tilde 9 $	非常重要	非常复杂	非常严重	经常发生	非常成熟	优
$ \tilde 2 $、$ \tilde 4 $、$ \tilde 6 $、$ \tilde 8 $	介于上述情况之间

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表 2 分配因素模糊评价系数

Table 2. Fuzzy evaluation coefficient of allocation factors

部件	复杂度$ {K_i} $	失效严重度$ {S_i} $	失效发生度$ {O_i} $	技术水平$ {M_i} $	工作环境$ {E_i} $
涡轮	$ \tilde 6 $	$ \tilde 9 $	$ \tilde 3 $	$ \tilde 9 $	$ \tilde 1 $
转子	$ \tilde 7 $	$ \tilde 8 $	$ \tilde 7 $	$ \tilde 8 $	$ \tilde 4 $
诱导轮	$ \tilde 4 $	$ \tilde 5 $	$ \tilde 3 $	$ \tilde 8 $	$ \tilde 4 $
叶轮	$ \tilde 5 $	$ \tilde 5 $	$ \tilde 4 $	$ \tilde 8 $	$ \tilde 4 $
轴承	$ \tilde 8 $	$ \tilde 9 $	$ \tilde 9 $	$ \tilde 8 $	$ \tilde 1 $
阻尼器	$ \tilde 2 $	$ \tilde 4 $	$ \tilde 3 $	$ \tilde 3 $	$ \tilde 2 $
动密封	$ \tilde 7 $	$ \tilde 8 $	$ \tilde 1 $	$ \tilde 5 $	$ \tilde 3 $
壳体	$ \tilde 2 $	$ \tilde 7 $	$ \tilde 1 $	$ \tilde 9 $	$ \tilde 2 $

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表 3 分配因素综合评价值

Table 3. Comprehensive evaluation values of allocation factors

部件	复杂度$ K_i^* $	失效严重度$ S_i^* $	失效发生度$ O_i^* $	失效相关因子$ {\varDelta _i} $	改进代价$ G_i^* $	失效危害度$ {C_i} $	分配权重$ {\omega _i} $
涡轮	6.1368	0.3125	3.0377	1.0126	0.1010	0.3338	0.0132
转子	7.6042	0.1404	7.2978	1.0425	0.2075	0.0730	0.0750
诱导轮	4.2428	0.0127	3.1276	1.0425	0.1032	0.0133	0.2295
叶轮	5.3541	0.0127	4.1702	1.0425	0.1293	0.0106	0.3627
轴承	8.2346	0.3125	9.1259	1.0139	0.2532	0.1331	0.0445
阻尼器	2.0724	0.0057	3.1538	1.0513	0.1039	0.0059	0.2510
动密封	7.6853	0.1404	1.0480	1.0480	0.0512	0.2957	0.0187
壳体	1.1423	0.0631	1.0230	1.0229	0.0506	0.1345	0.0054

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表 4 可靠性分配结果

Table 4. Reliability allocation results

方法	参数	涡轮	转子	诱导轮	叶轮	轴承	阻尼器	动密封	壳体	系统整体
对比方法1	可靠度	0.99990	0.99949	0.99839	0.99749	0.99967	0.99821	0.99987	0.99996	0.99300
对比方法1	成本	33.17621	6.23572	1.74633	1	9.81982	1.53701	25.44284	83.44336	162.40129
对比方法2	可靠度	0.99589	0.99637	0.99986	0.99979	0.99615	0.99906	0.99642	0.99761	0.99300
对比方法2	成本	1	8.71942	2.16062	55.21422	15.31175	1.89620	37.91382	125.49702	247.71305
所提方法	可靠度	0.99982	0.99896	0.99681	0.99497	0.99938	0.99652	0.99974	0.99992	0.99300
所提方法	成本	32.53041	1.22453	49.14462	1	1.11473	6.72557	1.25136	2.22183	95.21305

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